Conference Breakdown: SEC

I saved the best for last!  Time to talk SEC football!  Actually, it was a complete coincidence they just happen to fall last alphabetically, but that’s beside the point.  The SEC is loaded, yet again, and the polls recognize it.  In both the AP and Coaches polls, five (yes, five!) of the Top 10 are from the SEC.  Let that sink in for a moment.  This has never happened.  Take your pick at the winner of the conference’s 7^th straight BCS title.  You have five to pick from.  But seriously, if any one of the five runs the table or a west division team goes through with one loss we’ll be looking at another title game with SEC representation.  The clock is ticking with less than 24 hours until kickoff, and rightly so, the SEC will lead things off with an intriguing east division matchup with South Carolina and the sneaky Vanderbilt Commodores.  Things could get interesting starting week one if Vandy finds a way to get it done.  Oh!  How could I forget?  Like BCS championships, conference realignment couldn’t escape the SEC either.  As if SEC teams didn’t need any help on the recruiting trail, the Texas market has now been added with the additions of Texas A&M and Missouri.  Here are my thoughts on the SEC. 

I’ll tackle LSU and Alabama together.  Both teams lost some great talent in the offseason, whether through the NFL draft or suspension, but both are so deep they return from their All-SEC championship game in 2012 ranked in the Top 3 of all the polls.   Both schools pride themselves in tenacious, fast defenses, and the run game, but both have high expectations in finally implementing an attack through the air.  Zach Mettenberger, the talented QB kicked off of Georgia, landed in Baton Rouge and will air the ball out this season to “take the pressure off of the running game”.  LSU lost star receiver Rueben Randle, but Odell Beckham Jr. emerged as the go to wideout to replace him.  The running game is still the bread and butter.  Three of the four LSU backs ran for at least 500 yards in 2011, and the most talented of the group, Kenny Hilliard, averaged 5.4 yards as a freshman last season.  The front line is just as dominant as last year, but the best line in not only the conference, but the nation, goes to Alabama.  This line is loaded with two preseason All-Americans and will give the league’s most outspoken quarterback, A.J. McCarron, all the time in the world.  Running back Eddie Lacy killed it last year, but health remains a concern after the turf toe surgery.  McCarron was able to protect the ball last season and looked great against the LSU secondary in the championship game.  Alabama returns four starters on defense after losing five NFL draft picks.  Everyone concedes this is a young team, but the talent is there and many still rank this among the top defenses in the nation.  LSU returns two preseason All-Americans, but the loss of Morris Claiborne to the NFL and Coach Miles booting Tyrann Mathieu hurts in the secondary.  Neither team will be worried entering this season, as these defenses are used to losing NFL talent, and with improved offenses, both have championship expectations.

Georgia and South Carolina are still the top teams in the east, but Vanderbilt and Florida are on the rise.  Georgia returns, who many think is the top quarterback in the conference, Aaron Murray, and his leading receiver Tavarres King.  The running game is a question mark, but in my opinion didn’t take too much of a hit with the loss of Isiah Crowell.  The kid had been a headache since arriving in Athens, and was a constant distraction.  Was he talented?  Absolutely, but he subtracted more than added to the Bulldogs offense.  Georgia’s defense returns two All-Americans and ten starters.  This is widely heralded the best defense outside of Alabama and LSU.  For the second year in a row Georgia avoids Alabama, Arkansas, and LSU, and looks to repeat the east division title as well.

Florida is still looking to find a replacement for Tim Tebow and unless a miracle happens, both Jeff Driskel and Jacoby Brissett will fall short of expectations.  Neither could separate themselves in camp, so both will see playing time.  Andre DeBose is a threat out wide, and the deep O-line should improve the running game.  The schedule is fairly tough and may lead to another disappointing season in Gainesville.  Traveling to raucous Texas A&M for their first ever SEC game is a daunting task for anyone, a tough game at Tennessee with a desperate Derek Dooley could lead to an 0-2 start in conference play.  If Will Muschamp isn’t careful, he maybe at the top of the hot seat lists next season. 

South Carolina seems to be the only real threat to Georgia in the east, but there are a few questions marks on the offensive side of the ball.  Steve Spurrier’s ever changing quarterback situation and the health concerns of Marcus Lattimore at running back have fans a little nervous to face Georgia.  Connor Shaw received the starting job after Stephen Garcia was dismissed.  This doesn’t come as much of a surprise after his five career suspensions.  It’s amazing how Spurrier, a man known for a short temper, allowed himself to keep the kid around.  While the offense has a few uncertainties, the defense has zero with the potential of Jadeveon Clowney.  As a freshman he had eight sacks, but never really understood the defense.  The loss of the Stephon Gilmore to the NFL hurts, so expect the pass defense to regress this season. 

I’ll be the first to admit, I really like Arkansas’s potential this season.  I just don’t have the balls to pick them.  It’s something of a cop-out to say they could win the west division or fall behind both Alabama and LSU, but damn them, it could go either way.  If Petrino would have just told the truth I wouldn’t be in this spot.  If Petrino was still leading this team, I pick the Razorbacks to beat both Bama’ and LSU to win at home and waltz into the national championship.  Too many ifs… It may not be rational given their losses on offense and lackluster defensive performance last year, but I liked it and I was willing to stick by it under Petrino.  Unfortunately, John L. Smith takes over and I feel less secure.  Not that he’s a bad coach, but it just seems like a stretch now.  A majority of the coaching staff is intact and the offense seems to be just as potent as last year, despite the losses of Joe Adams, Greg Childs, and Jarius Wright at wideout.  If the defense can improve, and I mean improooove, then MAYBE, just maybe the Razorbacks have a shot at an SEC title.

I’ll highlight a few other schools – Ole Miss will continue to struggle, but Hugh Freeze I think is the most underrated head coaching hire this past offseason.  A proven recruiter at Ole Miss as an assistant under Ed Orgeron, and offensive guru, Hugh may be able to make Ole Miss relevant again.  Mississippi State will still struggle, as will A&M and Missouri in their first year with an SEC schedule.  Although, look for both A&M and Missouri to surprise a few teams and be competitive throughout the year.  Here are my predictions for the final standings in this national SEC championship race:

 Predicted Finish

·         East

1.     Georgia

2.     South Carolina

3.     Florida

4.     Missouri

5.     Vanderbilt

6.     Tennessee

7.     Kentucky

·         West

1.     LSU

2.     Arkansas

3.     Alabama

4.     Auburn

5.     Texas A&M

6.     Mississippi State

7.     Ole Miss

·         Champion

1.     LSU

That wraps up the conference breakdowns for the 2012 season!  I only touched on the BCS conferences, but don’t get me wrong, there are several potential BCS busters with La. Tech (you read that right), Boise State, and BYU.  It all starts tonight, so grab your favorite beverage, make your favorite dip, pull up a seat and hold on for another wild college football season!