Conference Breakdown: Pac-12

Time to add a little west coast flavor to the blog!  The Pac-12 enters the season after an extremely successful offseason.  USC was voted #1 in the AP poll, Commissioner Larry Scott was able to secure one of the highest media rights deals in college football, the most entertaining coach in the nation decided to make the conference his new home, and the conference still has the Song Girls of USC.  The sun is shining on the Pac-12!  But seriously, the Pac-12 has a few of the top teams in the nation, and the best chance at finally stealing a BCS championship from the SEC.  Here’s how the Pac-12 will look this season.

Everyone knew Lane Kiffin could recruit, but the job he’s done at USC is nothing short of remarkable.  Aided by the return of Heisman hopeful, Matt Barkley, and consensus All-American, Robert Woods, the stacked USC offense has the nation thinking national championship.  NCAA sanctions have limited the roster size, but Kiffin has put together a string of loaded recruiting classes to compensate.  Last year’s class size was 15 players, all of which were 4 or 5 star recruits.  However, the sanctions will force the coaching staff to play these freshmen much sooner, as depth is the biggest question mark for this squad.  We see highly touted recruits bust each year and USC knows all too well about that, so how will these freshmen turn out this season?  If the freshmen mature and the big players play big and stay healthy, a national championship berth isn’t unrealistic.  Defensively, like always, the Trojans are solid.  The line saw a bit of attrition, but will still be scary good.  The Trojans have the luxury of playing Oregon at home, and the conference plays the championship game at the home stadium of the team with the best record, so if USC can survive a Thursday night trap game in Utah and hold serve at home against the Ducks, expect the Trojans to head to Miami in January.

In the north division lies USC’s biggest threat with the explosive Oregon Ducks.  Not a lot changes year to year (except their jerseys) for the Oregon offense.  Chip Kelly seems to be able to seamlessly replace one star with another without slowing down this high octane offense.  De’Anthony Thomas may be the most exciting player in college football, and the preseason Heisman candidate will be untouchable.  Freshman quarterback, Marcus Mariota, beat out Brian Bennett for the starting job, but if you saw the spring game Mariota was substantially more impressive.  The kid comes in highly touted and no one doubts his talent, but Bennett has the game time experience and has proven he can run Kelly’s offense.  Regardless of who Kelly chooses, the offense will still be almost impossible to stop (unless, you’re an SEC defense).  The Ducks have been known for their offense under Kelly, but this is the Ducks best defense to date, so if the offense is as good as advertised and the defense can stop USC’s offensive juggernaut then expect the Ducks to fly over to Miami.  It looks almost impossible for the Pac-12 to not send someone to the BCS championship game this year. 

Staying in the north, Washington State is finally a talking point!  The hire of Mike Leach has to be the best hire after Urban Meyer at Ohio State.  Leach is familiar with the difficulties in recruiting to a program in the middle of nowhere and overshadowed by their rivals, but Leach was wildly successful at Texas Tech.  Just look at the excitement he was able to generate at Lubbock!  Leach will bring his air-raid offense to Pullman, where he already has the places in piece to be a potential spoiler for a few teams this year.  Senior quarterback, Jeff Tuel, appears to have a handle on the spread attach, and will be throwing to Marquess Wilson.  Wilson is expected to emerge as a Crabtree-esque receiver under Leach and will be expected to carry the offense all season.  The defense could be a bit of an issue.  It’s been said, and I quote, “The Cougars could lead the nation in points scored and points allowed this season.”  No one expects an instant turn around, but Leach certainly has his work cut out for him.  A few wins here and there, and an upset over cross-state rival, Washington, and the Cougars could land a solid recruiting class to fuel the resurgence of Washington State under Mike Leach.  The Cougars made it to the Rose Bowl in 2002 (2003 Rose Bowl game) so it’s not impossible to not only bring talent to Pullman, but to win as well.  Hell, even if the Cougar’s don’t contend for conference titles, the least they can do is keep this man around.

Rich Dick Rodriguez joins college football again after his departure from Michigan.  As much as this pains me to say, this was a great hire for Arizona.  The man has always been able to recruit, and was able to put in place a lot of the skill players you see today at Michigan.  Rodriguez knows how to implement the spread.  The thing that caught him up was the dismal display on defense.  Lucky for him he was able to bring back long-time friend, Jeff Casteel, who joins the Arizona staff.  The unique 3-3-5 stack is difficult to learn in its first year so expect Arizona to be a year or two off from competing with USC for the south division title.  NFL draftee, Nick Foles, has left the program so Rodriguez will be starting senior Matt Scott.  Scott is the only quarterback with game experience, so any injury to Scott will essentially doom the season.  Scott is a fit for the offense and will be protected by a fully returning offensive line.  Expect Arizona to struggle their first year under Rodriguez, but this isn’t unfamiliar territory.  Rodriguez struggled in his first year with West Virginia and Michigan before turning WVU into a Top 10 team and arguably had Michigan on the rise.

I’d write about Arizona State, but by the time I finished the post Todd Graham would have taken his “dream job” at another program.  Cal is a fringe Top 25 team and has the potential to put together a solid campaign.  As I wrote previously, if Cal doesn’t get it done this year with their returning defense and newly renovated stadium, Jeff Tedford may be looking for a new job.  Utah is the trendy pick to spoil USC’s season and host the Trojans on a Thursday night home game October 4^th.   The conferences’ best defensive lineman and All-American candidate, Star Lotulelei, returns to lead the most complete line in the conference.  Offensively, the Utes are dangerous if Jordan Wynn can stay healthy.  The pocket passer has a ton a skill out wide, but will need the line to play consistently if Utah is to contend this season. 

Unlike the Big Ten, the Pac-12 was willing to change their name, so I’ll touch on all the schools!

Colorado will struggle.  The Buffs have a tough road schedule and a young team.  If you can, change the channel when they come on.  UCLA will continue to be the second best team in L.A.  Jim (L!) Mora can get it done, but the first year at the helm will be a trying one.  UCLA will be starting a redshirt freshman at quarterback, implanting a new defense, and will have to beg for attention behind inter-city rival USC.  Oregon State will battle with Washington State for last in the north division, but Sean Mannion will kill it again.  It’s unfortunate that they share a division with Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and Cal all of whom are Top 25 teams.  Washington will take huge strides under Steve Sarkisian, but it won’t be enough to lead them past the Ducks.  And finally, Stanford has the misfortune of replacing Andrew Luck, but do return the conferences’ top running back in Stepfan Taylor.  The defense returns several All-Pac 12 candidates, but tough divisional road games will allow Oregon to walk away with the division.

Here are my predictions for the final Pac-12 standings:

Predicted Finish

·         North

1.     Oregon

2.     Cal

3.     Washington

4.     Stanford

5.     Oregon State

6.     Washington State

·         South 

1.     USC

2.     Utah

3.     UCLA

4.     Arizona

5.     Arizona State

6.     Colorado

·         Champion

1.       Oregon