Conference Breakdown: Big 12

Who said football is a fall sport?  The offseason for the Big 12 was almost as exciting as their offenses.  Charlie Weis takes the reign at Kansas, a new TV deal, newcomers WVU and TCU join the conference, and two of the best rivalries have died with Missouri and A&M bolting for the SEC.   Once thought to be on the verge of collapse, the Big 12 came back arguably stronger than before with the additions of TCU and WVU to replace Missouri and A&M.  TCU, the non-automatic qualifier powerhouse, rejoins their old Southwest Conference foes after more than 15 years apart.  WVU, burning bridges across the east coast, joins a conference with the nearest member 871 miles away in Ames, IA.  The Big 12 has been the second best AQ conference since the BCS era, and the question looms, with these two additions can the conference finally catch the SEC?

WVU is getting a lot of love for a team moving from the Big East Mess to the Big 12.  The Big 12 media poll put WVU to finish second behind Oklahoma.  There’s not a more explosive offense in this conference (maybe nation) than this group, but huge question marks remain on defense.  Jeff Casteel bolted to rejoin Rich Dick Rodriguez out at Arizona, and new hires Joe DeForest and Keith Patterson are moving from the odd 3-3-5 stack D to a traditional 3-4.  All spring and summer workouts point to positive results since a majority of players are familiar with the scheme, but until we see how it translates on game day, the defensive switch is a concern.  Not only is the defense dealing with scheme changes, but the pass defense is almost completely gone.  Gone is first round draft pick Bruce Miller.  Gone is all-Big East Mess linebacker Najee Goode.  Gone is all-Big East Mess safety Keith Tandy.  In a pass happy conference like the Big 12, inexperienced players are going to be exploited.  The question is, can they score more than their opponents?  With all the expectations of the offense, expect the November 17^th showdown with Oklahoma to have conference title implications.

TCU may be new to the conference, but they’re no strangers to the competition.  TCU has been playing at the highest level since Gary Patterson took over in 2000.  Patterson led an undefeated team in 2010, winning the Rose Bowl, and rising to number 2 in the final polls.  He then followed that up with an 11-2 campaign with first year starter Casey Pachall.  The drug bust in the offseason has led to several suspensions and players kicked off the team, but the depth and quality of players Patterson has recruited have the Horned Frogs ranked in the preseason Top 25.   TCU returns a bulk of their offensive skill players, with 3 of their top 4 receivers and rushers from 2011, but losing 3 starters from the offensive line may limit the damage these skill players can do.  Defensively, TCU has been one of the most dominant teams in recent years, but took a step back last year with a young secondary that was exposed against the passing attacks of Baylor and Boise State.  With only 5 returning starters, the secondary needs to improve substantially if they are to compete week to week in this air-raid conference.

Defense in the Big 12?  Yes, it seems a little unorthodox, but Texas has one of the fiercest defenses in the entire nation.  The defense returns 7 starters with a defense that finished with the 11^th best total defense, and the non-starters are all talented kids with ample game time experience.  The defense needs to get better with turning the ball over ranking only 52^nd nationally in a pass-happy conference.  Mack Brown must be losing sleep over his offensive problem.  David Ash and Case McCoy still can’t seem to separate themselves, leading to a bulk of the problems for the Longhorn offensive last year.  There still seems to be little to no separation this fall camp too, but the offensive line returns 4 starters and preseason all-Big 12 running back Malcolm Brown.  If the Longhorns develop a passing attack, then they could contend for the conference title.  But like I said before, Mack Brown only has a few more disappointing seasons left…

Most of the questions leading up to this season lay in the middle of the conference.  Without RGIII, can Baylor build on the breakout season of 2011?  They return a ton of talent on offense, but the pressure on Nick Florence to follow the best player in the nation in 2011 may be a bit much.  The offensive line returns 3 starters, which should help Florence with hitting his 3 returning starters at wide receiver.  All-Big 12 running back Terrance Ganaway is gone, but senior Jarred Salubi should be able to fill in behind this offensive line.  Don’t forget Florence isn’t without starting experience.  He took over when RGIII was injured in 2009.  How will Charlie Weis do in his next head coaching stint at Kansas?  He got a great break when quarterback Dayne Crist transferred from Notre Dame earlier this summer.  Not a lot else is looking up for the Jayhawks, not even their celebrations.  The Jayhawks have some talent on defense with their sack and interception leaders returning, but the team must improve in both categories if they are to compete in this conference.  Charlie Weis made a great hire in Dave Campo, but this will be quite the challenge for the ex-NFL coach.  The tough road schedule doesn’t bode well for Charlie Weis’ first year in the Big 12.  Iowa State and Kansas State are two teams looking to prove that last season wasn’t a fluke.  Iowa State ended the national championship bid for Oklahoma State, but lost to a mediocre Rutgers team in the New Era Pinstripe Bowl.  Kansas State must continue prove every doubter wrong week in and week out.  It’s hard to doubt Bill Snyder again this year, but they must travel to all the top teams in the conference with the lone exception of a trip to Austin.  Very few teams win in Austin, so it’s not unreasonable for the Wildcats to go winless on the road.

To say the least, there are a ton of storylines and questions to watch for in the Big 12 this season.  The conference contains a few teams that by running the table will contend for the BCS title come January.  Here’s how I see things shaking out in the Big 12 this season:

Predicted Finish

1.     Oklahoma

2.     Texas

3.     West Virginia

4.     Oklahoma State

5.     TCU

6.     Baylor

7.     Kansas State

8.     Iowa State

9.     Texas Tech

10.  Kansas