Spread Pick'Em: Week 4

Alright, some improvement from week 2 to week 3!  Not a lot, but I'll take what I can get at this point.  Last week's 4-6 record moves me to 11-25 on the season.  I'm bleeding money here, but again, a perfect week puts me in respectable territory!  I'll be right up there with the experts!  Long shot, but let's hope for some improvement again in week 4. 

Through three weeks I've learned the following: 1) Picking against the spread makes everything more exciting and 2) This can not be done logically - you're better off just flipping a coin.  To show this last point, let's take a look at some of last weeks picks:

1. USC (-10.5) at Stanford - let's ignore the rankings, because those are arbitrary until we get 10 weeks into the season, but seriously Stanford wins straight up?  On paper, USC is the more talented, more gifted, faster, more poised, and yet the rebuilding Stanford team dominates the Trojans all over the field.  Their secondary was other-worldly, their defense just abused the offensive line.  There's no way anyone thought Barkley would be held to no passing touchdowns given the talent out wide and his poise under center.  He looked rattled at the end of the game and he now finishes 0-4 against Standford.  Covering the 10.5 fine.  Winning straight up? C'mon...
2. VT (-11.5) at Pitt - There's not a lot to say here.  I hate both teams, but pushing emotion aside, Pitt looked miserable this season.  Lost to an FCS I-AA team, embarrassed by Cincci, I mean this team just sucked leading up to this game.  Yet in classic VT style, they blow a game they are clearly favored (see ECU 08', JMU 10').  They continue to have let down games, and then go on to throttle their opponents throughout the remainder of the season.   

This week I'm sticking with the logic approach, but if it goes south, I'm going to start flipping a coin.  After three weeks it goes without saying...follow at your own peril.

Note: Picks are in BOLD

#22 Arizona (+23.5) at #3 Oregon (-23.5)

Virginia (+17.5) at #17 TCU (-17.5)

Missouri (+10.5) at #7 South Carolina (-10.5)

Oregon State (+11.5) at #19 UCLA (-11.5)

Cal (+16.5) at #13 USC (-16.5)

#2 LSU (-18.5) at Auburn (+18.5)

#18 Michigan (+7.5) at Notre Dame (-7.5)

Vanderbilt (+14.5) at #5 Georgia (-14.5)

#15 Kansas State (+13.5) at #6 Oklahoma (-13.5)

#10 Clemson (+13.5) at #4 FSU (-13.5)