Friday, September 21, 2012

Policing the Polls

Everyone complains about how arbitrary the rankings are and how the voters really don't pay attention week-in, week-out, but just how bad was it after a quarter of the season?  Well we won't know who voted for who in the USAToday Coaches Poll (unless, you're Lane Kiffin) until the final poll, and really that's an injustice.  Who in the hell thinks Wisconsin is one of the Top 25 teams in the nation?  Well, apparently a majority of the voting coaches... Luckily the fine people over at PollSpeak breakdown the AP Poll each week, so I'm going to highlight some of the absurdities through the the latest poll. 
  • Doug Lesmerises - this guy is consistent.  Consistently one of the most extreme voters each week.  The guy makes absolutely bipolar, snap decisions on teams, based, most likely, on box scores and recaps.  Is he actually watching every game?  There's no way.  The AP Poll comes out on Sunday, so good luck watching all the replays of all the games...  Let's look at just four teams and his mood swings with them.  Georgia started out #4 to start the season, after the Buffalo game he drops them to #11.  Fair enough, they looked a bit sluggish minus some key defensive players against a mid-tier MAC team.  Georgia then goes into hostile territory and beats a Missouri team he doesn't rank in the Top 25 and moves Georgia to #3 - ahead of USC.  I happen to disagree that after two weeks Georgia had proved more than USC, and so did all other 59 AP voters.  Now look at the Clemson rankings.  This blows my mind.  He started Clemson at #24 in the preseason.  Oddly low, but fine.  Clemson then barely beats an unranked Auburn team and he jumps them all the way to #4?  What game did he watch?  Not the same one the rest of the nation did.  Just for laughs take a look at his instant love for Louisiana-Monroe and Stanford after their big wins.  UL-Monroe went from not even close to being ranked to #13, yep #13, and then dropped from the Top 25 after losing in OT to Auburn.  The same Auburn team that Clemson beat to jump into the Top 5.  What the hell is basing this shit on?  At least the Stanford ranking has some merit.  Stanford jumped all the way to #4 after the USC upset.  An extreme jump in ranking?  Sure, but at least he had USC as one of the Top 5 teams before the loss.
  • Scott Wolf - This guy is just astounding.  His Top 10 is interesting to say the least, but at I can agree on most of the teams he has in there.  Oklahoma at #3?  Not through 3 games.  Florida at #10?  They need to show more consistency on offense.  But these are all arguable points.  What I don't think are, are these:  Oregon State has played a total of one game.  A win against a Wisconsin team that everyone agrees is not a Top25 or even 35 team in the nation.  They are in shambles and rebuilding with a new coaching staff, offensive strategy, and loss of key players.  Well, Scott believes that this victory puts Oregon State at #16.  My issue with this is, how the hell do you know?  Based on what?  One game?  Against a mid-tier Big Ten team at home?  This isn't a prediction tool, this is a tool that should be used to compare teams to date.  He places Notre Dame at #24.  A Notre Dame team that has a much more proven record.  All other voters and for the most part, the fans agree that Notre Dame is much better than a #24 ranking.  What gets me is the Ohio at #23 ranking.  The ranking itself isn't as much a concern (although, who have they beaten?), as them ahead of Notre Dame and Michigan State.  The performances and wins for those two teams are far superior to Ohio's to date. 
To some, these may be small facts and outliers, but they speak to a larger trend of voters seemingly arbitrary ranking teams based on box scores, SportsCenter highlights.  All of this is fine in the AP Poll because it's no longer counted in the BCS formula, but you would be hard pressed to find anyone who doesn't think these trends don't appear in the Coaches Poll, where coaches have the incentive to inflate fellow conference members rankings due to the big dollar BCS games.  Until they release the details of the four team playoff selection, this will continue to be an issue.  Until then, following the polls and disagreeing will continue to be a past time favorite.  Long live the polls!

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