Offense Wins Championships?

Everyone’s heard the old adage, “Defense wins championships”, but this statement has been debunked time and time again.  Click on those links and you’ll find yourself looking at the myth debunked using NFL and NBA statistics, but as we saw with the 2005 Texas, 2008 Florida, and 2010 Auburn teams, their overpowering offenses led the way for their national championships.  To win a championship in any sport requires a fairly complete team (although the 2010 Auburn suggests otherwise), but there seems to be the idea that strong defensive teams grab the hardware.  So I started thinking, if the stats don’t support this theory, then how about the coaching background of the guys leading these teams?  What does the background of the head coaches of the BCS era championship teams say about the offense vs. defense debate?

Thinking back on what I know about the head coaches of the championship teams during the BCS era (1998-2011), and about some of their teams through the years, what I found surprised me – of the 11 different coaches in the BCS era, 7 have coaching backgrounds on the offensive side of the ball.  Just look at this chart, and think about the style of play and what you remember of these championship teams.  Does it mesh with the head of the teams’ background?  I know I was surprised in several cases...

Year	Champion	Head Coach	Background
1998	Tennessee	Phil Fulmer	Offense
1999	Florida State	Bobby Bowden	Offense
2000	Oklahoma	Bob Stoops	Defense
2001	Miami	Larry Coker	Offense
2002	Ohio State	Jim Tressel	Offense
2003	LSU	Nick Saban	Defense
2004	USC	Pete Carroll	Defense
2005	Texas	Mack Brown	Offense
2006	Florida	Urban Meyer	Offense
2007	LSU	Les Miles	Offense
2008	Florida	Urban Meyer	Offense
2009	Alabama	Nick Saban	Defense
2010	Auburn	Gene Chizik	Defense
2011	Alabama	Nick Saban	Defense
2012	?	?	?

So what do these offensive minded coaches bring to their teams that ultimately win a championship?  Is it the latest and greatest spread option offensive schemes that are just now being shut down by defensive geniuses like Saban?  Is it the flashy, big play risk taking?  Are they just surrounding themselves with great staffs?  I honestly think it’s a combination of things and it’s nearly impossible to state there’s a clear trend, but look at the favorites to win this year’s national championship:

Lane Kiffin (USC): Background – Offense; 2012 Team Strengths – Offensive skill positions

Les Miles (LSU): Background – Offense; 2012 Team Strength – Balanced offense and returning defensive starters

Nick Saban (Alabama): Background – Defense; 2012 Team Strength – Defense

Chip Kelly (Oregon): Background – Offense; 2012 Team Strength – High tempo spread offense

Bobby Petrino* (Arkansas): Background – Offense; 2012 Team Strength – Offensive skill positions

*Note: Prior to Bobby Petrino’s firing, Arkansas was considered a preseason top 5 team and threat to LSU and Alabama to contend for the SEC West and National Championship

Maybe it’s time to change this little saying to “Offensive coaches win championships.”